Dynamic Assessment of Modified Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment in Acutely Deteriorated Patients with Chronic Liver Disease.

Background/Aims: Quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) has been suggested to identify those who have poor outcomes in patients with suspected infection. We aimed to evaluate the ability of the modified qSOFA (m-qSOFA) to identify high-risk patients in acutely deteriorated patients with chronic liver disease (CLD), especially acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Methods: We used the data of both Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) and Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) cohorts. qSOFA was modified by replacing the Glasgow Coma Scale with hepatic encephalopathy, and m-qSOFA≥2 was considered high. Results: Patients with high m-qSOFA had a significantly lower 1-month transplant-free survival (TFS) in both cohorts and higher organ failure development in KACLiF than patients with low m-qSOFA (Ps<0.05). Subgroup analysis by ACLF showed that patients with high m-qSOFA had lower TFS than patients with low m-qSOFA. m-qSOFA was an independent prognostic factor (hazard ratios (HR)=2.604, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.353-5.013, P=0.004 in KACLiF and HR=1.904, 95% CI 1.484-2.442, P<0.001 in AARC). The patients with low m-qSOFA at baseline but high m-qSOFA on the 7th day had a significantly lower 1-month TFS than the patients with high m-qSOFA at baseline but low m-qSOFA on the 7th day (52.6% vs. 89.4%, P<0.001 in KACLiF and 26.9% vs. 61.5%, P<0.001 in AARC). Conclusion: Baseline and dynamic changes in m-qSOFA were useful to identify patients with a high risk of organ failure development and short-term mortality among CLD patients with acute deterioration.

Effect of Probiotics in Stress-Associated Constipation Model in Zebrafish (Danio rerio) Larvae.

The pathophysiology of functional bowel disorders is complex, involving disruptions in gut motility, visceral hypersensitivity, gut-brain-microbiota interactions, and psychosocial factors. Light pollution, as an environmental stressor, has been associated with disruptions in circadian rhythms and the aggravation of stress-related conditions. In this study, we investigated the effects of environmental stress, particularly continuous light exposure, on intestinal motility and inflammation using zebrafish larvae as a model system. We also evaluated the efficacy of probiotics, specifically Bifidobacterium longum (B. longum), at alleviating stress-induced constipation. Our results showed that continuous light exposure in zebrafish larvae increased the cortisol levels and reduced the intestinal motility, establishing a stress-induced-constipation model. We observed increased inflammatory markers and decreased intestinal neural activity in response to stress. Furthermore, the expressions of aquaporins and vasoactive intestinal peptide, crucial for regulating water transport and intestinal motility, were altered in the light-induced constipation model. Administration of probiotics, specifically B. longum, ameliorated the stress-induced constipation by reducing the cortisol levels, modulating the intestinal inflammation, and restoring the intestinal motility and neural activity. These findings highlight the potential of probiotics to modulate the gut-brain axis and alleviate stress-induced constipation. Therefore, this study provides a valuable understanding of the complex interplay among environmental stressors, gut function, and potential therapeutic strategies.

Reduced Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Long-Term Besifovir Therapy.

No information is available regarding the influence of besifovir (BSV), a new nucleotide analogue, on the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). This study evaluated the reduced risk of HCC in patients undergoing BSV treatment. A total of 188 patients with CHB were treated with BSV for up to 8 years. We prospectively assessed the incidence of HCC compared with the risk from prediction models. During the follow-up, 5 patients developed HCC: 1 of 139 patients with non-cirrhotic CHB, and 4 of 49 patients with liver cirrhosis. We compared the HCC incidence in non-cirrhotic and cirrhotic patients with the predicted number derived from the REACH-B (risk estimation for HCC in CHB) model and GAG-HCC (guide with age, gender, HBV DNA, core promotor mutation, and cirrhosis) model, respectively. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) was 0.128 (p = 0.039) at 7 years in non-cirrhotic CHB patients, and the SIR was 0.371 (p = 0.047) at 7.5 years in cirrhotic patients, suggesting a significantly decreased HCC incidence in both groups. HCC prediction was available for BSV-treated patients using existing models. In conclusion, BSV decreased the risk of HCC in patients with CHB, and prediction models were applicable. Clinical trial registry website and trial number: ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT01937806.

Noninferiority Outcomes of Besifovir Compared to Tenofovir Alafenamide in Treatment-Naïve Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background/Aims: : Besifovir dipivoxil maleate (BSV) and tenofovir alafenamide fumarate (TAF) have been recently approved in Korea as the initial antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). However, the real-world outcome data for these drugs remain limited. Therefore, we conducted a noninferiority analysis using real-world data to compare the clinical outcomes of the two nucleotide analogs in treatment-naïve patients with CHB. Methods: : We retrospectively investigated a cohort of patients with CHB who received BSV or TAF as first-line antiviral agents. The endpoints were virological response (VR) and liver-related clinical outcomes. Results: : A total of 537 patients, consisting of 202 and 335 patients administered BSV and TAF, respectively, were followed up for 42 months. No significant difference was observed between the VRs of the patients from the two groups. The rates of biochemical response, virologic breakthrough, and incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma did not differ between the groups. However, the hepatitis B e antigen seroclearance rate was higher and the renal function declined less in the BSV group. Multivariable analysis indicated older age, alcohol abuse, cirrhosis and ascites, and lower serum HBV DNA level to be independently associated with increased hepatocellular carcinoma risk. The 1:1 propensity score-matched analysis with 400 patients showed VR rates of 85.0% and 88.7% in the BSV and TAF group patients, respectively, at 2 years. The absolute value of the 95% confidence interval for the difference (-0.04 to 0.12) satisfied the a priori limit of a noninferiority of 0.15. Conclusions: : BSV is noninferior to TAF in terms of VR, and their clinical outcomes are comparable to CHB.

New prognostic model for hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis and Maddrey's discriminant function <32.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Few studies have investigated the prognosis of patients with non-severe alcoholic hepatitis (Non-SAH). The study aimed to develop a new prognostic model for patients with especially Non-SAH. METHODS: We extracted 316 hospitalized patients with alcoholic cirrhosis without severe alcoholic hepatitis, defined as Maddrey's discriminant function score lower than 32, from the retrospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort to develop a new prognostic model (training set), and validated it in 419 patients from the prospective KACLiF cohort (validation set). Prognostic factors for death and liver transplantation were analyzed to construct a prognostic model. RESULTS: Twenty-one and 24 patients died within 6 months in both sets, respectively. In the training set, the highest area under the curve (AUC) of conventional prognostic models was 0.765, 0.732, and 0.684 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively. Refractory ascites, vasopressor use, and hyponatremia were independently associated with mortality of cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH. The new model consisted of four variables: past deterioration, neutrophil proportion > 70%, Na < 128 mmol/L, and vasopressor use. It showed the highest accuracy for short-term mortality in the training and validation sets (0.803 and 0.786; 0.797 and 0.776; and 0.789 and 0.721 for 1-, 3-, and 6-month mortality, respectively). CONCLUSION: There is a group of patients with high risk among those classified as Non-SAH. The new model will help stratifying cirrhotic patients with Non-SAH more accurately in terms of prognosis. The patients with high Non-SAH score need to monitor closely and might be considered for preemptive liver transplantation. TRIAL REGESTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02650011.

Current status of ultrasonography in national cancer surveillance program for hepatocellular carcinoma in South Korea: a large-scale multicenter study.

Background/Aim: Abdominal ultrasonography (USG) is recommended as a surveillance test for high-risk groups for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to analyze the current status of the national cancer surveillance program for HCC in South Korea and investigate the effects of patient-, physician-, and machine-related factors on HCC detection sensitivity. Methods: This multicenter retrospective cohort study collected surveillance USG data from the high-risk group for HCC (liver cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B or C >40 years of age) at eight South Korean tertiary hospitals in 2017. Results: In 2017, 45 experienced hepatologists or radiologists performed 8,512 USG examinations. The physicians had a mean 15.0±8.3 years of experience; more hepatologists (61.4%) than radiologists (38.6%) participated. Each USG scan took a mean 12.2±3.4 minutes. The HCC detection rate by surveillance USG was 0.3% (n=23). Over 27 months of follow-up, an additional 135 patients (0.7%) developed new HCC. The patients were classified into three groups based on timing of HCC diagnosis since the 1st surveillance USG, and no significant intergroup difference in HCC characteristics was noted. HCC detection was significantly associated with patient-related factors, such as old age and advanced fibrosis, but not with physician- or machine-related factors. Conclusions: This is the first study of the current status of USG as a surveillance method for HCC at tertiary hospitals in South Korea. It is necessary to develop quality indicators and quality assessment procedures for USG to improve the detection rate of HCC.

Core indicators related to the elimination of hepatitis B and C virus infection in South Korea: A nationwide study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To eliminate hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) according to the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria in 2021, this study investigated the national core indicators representing the current status of viral hepatitis B and C in South Korea. METHODS: We analyzed the incidence, linkage-to-care, treatment, and mortality rates of HBV and HCV infection using the integrated nationwide big data of South Korea. RESULTS: According to data from 2018-2020, the incidence of acute HBV infection in South Korea was 0.71 cases per 100,000 population; tthe linkage-to-care rate was only 39.4%. Among those who need hepatitis B treatment, the treatment rate was 67.3%, which was less than 80% reported in the WHO program index. The annual liver-related mortality due to HBV was 18.85 cases per 100,000 population, exceeding the WHO target of four; the most frequent cause of death was liver cancer (54.1%). The annual incidence of newly diagnosed HCV infection was 11.9 cases per 100,000 population, which was higher than the WHO impact target of five. Among HCV-infected patients, the linkage-to-care rate was 65.5% while the treatment rate was 56.8%, which were below the targets of 90% and 80%, respectively. The liver-related annual mortality rate due to HCV infection was 2.02 cases per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Many of the current indicators identified in the Korean population did not satisfy the WHO criteria for validation of viral hepatitis elimination. Hence, a comprehensive national strategy should be urgently developed with continuous monitoring of the targets in South Korea.

The Effect of Necrosis Inhibitor on Dextran Sulfate Sodium Induced Chronic Colitis Model in Mice.

Uncontrolled chronic inflammation and necrosis is characteristic of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study aimed to investigate the effect of necrosis inhibitor (NI, NecroX-7) on a dextran sulfate sodium (DSS) induced chronic colitis model of mice. DSS was administered on days 1-5, and the NI was administered intraperitoneally (3 mg/kg, 30 mg/kg) on days 1, 3, and 5 as well as every other day during the first five days of a three-week cycle. Three cycles of administration were performed. Colitis was evaluated based on the disease activity index (DAI) score, colon length, and histological score. Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction testing, the Western blot assay, and immunohistochemical staining were performed to determine inflammatory cytokine levels. The NI reduced body weight change and the DAI score. Colon length and the histological score were longer and lower in the NI-treated groups, respectively. The NI decreased the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines, particularly in tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) and phosphorylated nuclear factor kappa B (p-NF-κB). Immunohistochemical staining revealed decreased inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) and high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) levels. Overall, the NI improved DSS induced chronic colitis by attenuating the mRNA expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-α. Therefore, NI use is a potential, novel treatment approach for IBD.

The clinical effect of antiviral therapy in patients with hepatitis B virus-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable DNA.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Antiviral therapy (AVT) is the mainstay of hepatitis B virus (HBV) management. We investigated whether AVT improves the outcomes of HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA. METHODS: Between 2000 and 2017, treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA were recruited from two tertiary hospitals. The endpoints included death and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). RESULTS: A total of 429 patients were analyzed (50 and 379 patients in the AVT and non-AVT groups, respectively). Patients in the AVT group were significantly younger and had higher alanine aminotransferase and alpha-fetoprotein levels than those in the non-AVT group (all P < 0.05). During follow-up (median 49.6 months), 98 patients died and 105 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence rates of death (2.0%, 4.1%, and 6.4%, and 4.9%, 7.2%, and 10.2% at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years, respectively) and HCC (8.6%, 15.8%, and 26.4% vs 1.6%, 7.7%, and 24.4% at 1, 2, and 5 years, respectively) were statistically comparable between the AVT and non-AVT groups (all P > 0.05). Using Cox regression analysis, AVT was not significantly associated with death nor HCC (all P > 0.05). Similar results were observed after balancing baseline characteristics with inverse probability of treatment weighting. In the non-AVT group, the cumulative incidence rates of HBV-DNA detection at 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years were 2.0%, 3.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Antiviral therapy did not attenuate the risk of death nor HCC in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis and undetectable HBV-DNA.

Response-Guided Therapy With Cefotaxime, Ceftriaxone, or Ciprofloxacin for Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: A Randomized Trial: A Validation Study of 2021 AASLD Practice Guidance for SBP.

INTRODUCTION: For the treatment of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin were used as first-line agents. However, considering the increasing rate of antibiotic resistance, it is unclear which of these drugs can be initially recommended. This study aimed to compare the current efficacy of the 3 antibiotics, namely cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin, for the treatment of SBP in patients with cirrhosis with ascites, when guided by therapeutic responses. METHODS: This study was a multicenter, prospective, randomized controlled trial. The inclusion criteria were 16- to 75-year-old patients with liver cirrhosis with ascites, having polymorphonuclear cell count of >250/mm 3 . We performed a follow-up paracentesis at 48 hours to decide continuing or changing the assigned antibiotics and then assessed the resolution rates at 120 and 168 hours of treatment. RESULTS: A total of 261 patients with cirrhosis who developed SBP were enrolled. Most of the patients were diagnosed as those with SBP within 48 hours of admission. The resolution rates at 120 hours, which is the primary endpoint, were 67.8%, 77.0%, and 73.6% in the cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin groups, respectively ( P = 0.388), by intension-to-treat analysis. The 1-month mortality was similar among the groups ( P = 0.770). The model for end-stage liver disease score and the SBP resolution were significant factors for survival. CONCLUSION: The efficacy of empirical antibiotics, such as cefotaxime, ceftriaxone, and ciprofloxacin, against SBP was not significantly different. In addition, these antibiotics administered based on response-guided therapy were still efficacious as initial treatment for SBP, especially in those with community-acquired infections.

Diagnostic Efficacy of Serum Asialo α1-Acid Glycoprotein Levels for Advanced Liver Fibrosis and Cirrhosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Compared to That in Healthy Subjects: A Prospective Study.

Background: Serum asialo α1-acid gycoprotein (AsAGP) is a novel biomarker specific to liver fibrosis. Aim: To evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of serum AsAGP levels in classifying the severity of liver fibrosis and differentiating liver cirrhosis (LC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) from healthy controls. Methods: Overall, 206 subjects were prospectively enrolled. LC was diagnosed based on liver stiffness levels (>11 kPa) measured using transient elastography. Serum AsAGP levels were measured using an antibody-lectin sandwich immunoassay. We investigated the diagnostic performance by comparing serum AsAGP levels among healthy control, CHB, and CHB with LC groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and optimal AsAGP cut-off values were also calculated. Results: Serum AsAGP levels were significantly different between healthy controls, CHB patients, and CHB patients with LC (1.04 ± 0.31 µg/mL, 1.12 ± 0.34 µg/mL, 1.51 ± 0.43 µg/mL respectively; p < 0.001). Serum AsAGP levels positively correlated with liver stiffness (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). AUROC of healthy control versus CHB with LC was 0.821 (p < 0.001, optimal cut-off 1.036 µg/mL). AUROC of healthy control versus CHB was 0.624 (p = 0.049, optimal cut-off level 0.934 µg/mL). AUROC of CHB versus CHB with LC was 0.765, (p < 0.001, optimal cut-off 1.260 µg/mL). Conclusions: Serum AsAGP levels in CHB patients with LC were significantly higher than those in healthy controls and CHB patients. AsAGP levels showed good diagnostic performance in predicting advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis, which suggests a potential role as a biomarker for predicting the progression of liver disease in CHB.

Age, Sex, and Body Mass Index Should Be Considered When Assessing Spleen Length in Patients with Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease.

Background/Aims: We investigated the factors related to spleen length and the diagnostic accuracy of a model using spleen length corrected by related factors, for the prediction of varices needing treatment (VNT). Methods: Various prediction models for VNT including spleen length were analyzed in the cohort of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD), defined as liver stiffness (LS) ≥10 kPa in a recent study. The associated factors for spleen length were identified in healthy subjects to improve the prediction of VNT. Results: Among 1,218 cACLD patients, VNT was noted in 249 patients (20.4%). On multivariate analysis, longer spleen length, lower platelet count, and higher LS value were independent predictors for VNT (all p<0.001). In multivariate analysis of 1,041 healthy subjects, age (ß=-0.027), sex (ß=0.762), and body mass index (ß=0.097) were found to be significant factors for spleen length (all p<0.001). Using the ß values, the estimated spleen length was calculated. To improve the prediction of VNT, the ratio of measured and estimated spleen length was calculated. Based on binary regression analysis results, the LS value-spleen ratio to platelet score (LSRPS) was calculated as follows: 0.027×LS value (kPa)+2.690×measured/estimated spleen ratio-0.011×platelet count (cells×109/L)-4.215. The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the LSRPS for VNT was 0.820, which was significantly higher than 0.797 of LS value-spleen diameter to platelet ratio score (LSPS) (p=0.006). Conclusions: Spleen length is influenced by age, sex, and body mass index in the Asian population. The LSRPS using the measured/estimated spleen ratio had higher diagnostic accuracy than LSPS in predicting VNT in patients with cACLD.

The Clinical Courses and Prognosis of Cirrhotic Patients after First Acute Decompensation: Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The European Foundation for the Study of Chronic Liver Failure (EF-CLIF) consortium suggested that the clinical courses after acute decompensation (AD) stratify the long-term prognosis: stable decompensated cirrhosis (SDC), unstable decompensated cirrhosis (UDC), pre acute-on-chronic liver failure (pre ACLF), and ACLF. However, previous studies included patients with a history of previous AD and had limitations associated with identifying the clinical factors related to prognosis after the first AD. METHOD: The prospective Korean Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (KACLiF) cohort included cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD between July 2015 and August 2018. We analysed the factors associated with readmission after the first AD and compared the characteristics and prognosis among each subgroup to evaluate the risk factors for the occurrence of pre ACLF after AD. RESULT: A total of 746 cirrhotic patients who were hospitalised with first AD were enrolled. The subgroups consisted of SDC (n = 565), UDC (n = 29), pre ACLF (n = 28), and ACLF (n = 124). Of note, pre ACLF showed a poorer prognosis than ACLF. The risk factors associated with readmission within 3 months of first AD were non-variceal gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), and high MELD score. Viral aetiology was associated with the occurrence of pre ACLF compared with alcohol aetiology regardless of baseline liver function status. CONCLUSION: Cirrhotic patients with first AD who present as non-variceal GI bleeding and HE can easily relapse. Interestingly, the occurrence of AD with organ failure within 3 months of first AD (pre ACLF) has worse prognosis compared with the occurrence of organ failure at first AD (ACLF). In particular, cirrhotic patients with viral hepatitis with/without alcohol consumption showed poor prognosis compared to other aetiologies. Therefore, patients with ACLF after AD within 3 months should be treated more carefully and definitive treatment through LT should be considered.

Outcome of Intermittent Thoracentesis versus Pigtail Catheter Drainage for Hepatic Hydrothorax.

Background/Aims: The management of hepatic hydrothorax (HH) remains a challenging clinical scenario with suboptimal options. We investigated the effect and safety of pigtail catheter drainage compared to intermittent thoracentesis. Methods: This multicenter, retrospective study included 164 cirrhotic patients with recurrent pleural effusion from March 2012 to June 2017. Patients with neoplasms, cardiopulmonary disease, and infectious conditions were excluded. We compared the clinical outcomes of pigtail catheter drainage versus thoracentesis for variables including complications related to procedures, overall survival, and re-admission rates. Results: A total of 164 patients were divided into pigtail catheter (n = 115) and thoracentesis (n = 49) groups. During the follow-up period of 6.93 months after discharge, 98 patients died (pigtail; n = 47 vs. thoracentesis; n = 51). The overall survival (p = 0.61) and 30-day mortality (p = 0.77) rates were similar between the pigtail catheter and thoracentesis groups. Only MELD scores were associated with overall survival (adjusted HR, 1.08; p < 0.01) in patients with HH. Spontaneous pleurodesis occurred in 59 patients (51.3%) in the pigtail catheter group. Re-admission rates did not differ between the pigtail catheter and thoracentesis groups (13.2% vs 19.6% p = 0.7). A total of five complications occurred, including four total cases of bleeding (one patient in the pigtail catheter group and three in the thoracentesis group) and one case of empyema in the pigtail catheter group. Conclusions: Pigtail catheter drainage is not inferior to that of intermittent thoracentesis for the management of HH, proving it may be an effective and safe clinical option.

Efficacy and Safety of Bepirovirsen in Chronic Hepatitis B Infection.

BACKGROUND: Bepirovirsen is an antisense oligonucleotide that targets all hepatitis B virus (HBV) messenger RNAs and acts to decrease levels of viral proteins. METHODS: We conducted a phase 2b, randomized, investigator-unblinded trial involving participants with chronic HBV infection who were receiving or not receiving nucleoside or nucleotide analogue (NA) therapy. Participants were randomly assigned (in a 3:3:3:1 ratio) to receive weekly subcutaneous injections of bepirovirsen at a dose of 300 mg for 24 weeks (group 1), bepirovirsen at a dose of 300 mg for 12 weeks then 150 mg for 12 weeks (group 2), bepirovirsen at a dose of 300 mg for 12 weeks then placebo for 12 weeks (group 3), or placebo for 12 weeks then bepirovirsen at a dose of 300 mg for 12 weeks (group 4). Groups 1, 2, and 3 received loading doses of bepirovirsen. The composite primary outcome was a hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) level below the limit of detection and an HBV DNA level below the limit of quantification maintained for 24 weeks after the planned end of bepirovirsen treatment, without newly initiated antiviral medication. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat population comprised 457 participants (227 receiving NA therapy and 230 not receiving NA therapy). Among those receiving NA therapy, a primary-outcome event occurred in 6 participants (9%; 95% credible interval, 0 to 31) in group 1, in 6 (9%; 95% credible interval, 0 to 43) in group 2, in 2 (3%; 95% credible interval, 0 to 16) in group 3, and 0 (0%; post hoc credible interval, 0 to 8) in group 4. Among participants not receiving NA therapy, a primary-outcome event occurred in 7 participants (10%; 95% credible interval, 0 to 38), 4 (6%; 95% credible interval, 0 to 25), 1 (1%; post hoc credible interval, 0 to 6), and 0 (0%; post hoc credible interval, 0 to 8), respectively. During weeks 1 through 12, adverse events, including injection-site reactions, pyrexia, fatigue, and increased alanine aminotransferase levels, were more common with bepirovirsen (groups 1, 2, and 3) than with placebo (group 4). CONCLUSIONS: In this phase 2b trial, bepirovirsen at a dose of 300 mg per week for 24 weeks resulted in sustained HBsAg and HBV DNA loss in 9 to 10% of participants with chronic HBV infection. Larger and longer trials are required to assess the efficacy and safety of bepirovirsen. (Funded by GSK; B-Clear ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04449029.).

Long-Term Prediction Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B Receiving Antiviral Therapy: Based on Data from Korean Patients.

Predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a key clinical issue in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). The aim of this study was to develop a precise and simple HCC risk score for up to 10 years. A total of 1895 CHB patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were retrospectively recruited and randomized into derivation (n = 1239) and validation cohorts (n = 656). Variables proven to be independent risk factors for HCC in the derivation cohort were used to develop the prediction model. The ACCESS-HCC model included five variables (age, cirrhosis, consumption of ethanol, liver stiffness, and serum alanine aminotransferase). Areas under curves were 0.798, 0.762, and 0.883 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, respectively, which were higher than those of other prediction models. The scores were categorized according to significantly different HCC incidences: 0-4, low; 5-8, intermediate; and 9-14, high-risk. The annual incidence rates were 0.5%, 3.2%, and 11.3%, respectively. The performance of this model was validated in an independent cohort. The ACCESS-HCC model shows improved long-term prediction and provides three distinct risk categories for HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. Further research is needed for external validation using larger cohorts.

Impacts of muscle mass dynamics on prognosis of outpatients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Sarcopenia negatively affects the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, but clinical implications of changes in muscle mass remain unclear. We aimed to elucidate its role in the prognosis of outpatients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Patients with cirrhosis who underwent annual abdominal computed tomography (CT) for hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance were included in the prospective cohort. The L3 skeletal muscle index (SMI) was adopted as a proxy for the amount of skeletal muscle, and the rate of SMI change between inclusion and after 1 year (ΔSMI/yr%) was calculated. RESULTS: In total, 595 patients underwent a second CT after 1 year. Among them, 109 and 64 patients had sarcopenia and Child-Pugh class B/C decompensation at inclusion, which changed to 103 and 45 at the 1-year follow-up, respectively. During a median follow-up of 30.1 months after 1 year, 86 patients had at least one cirrhosis complication, and 18 died or received liver transplantation. In the development of cirrhosis complications, ΔSMI/yr% was independently associated, even after adjusting for the Child-Pugh and model for end stage liver disease (MELD)-Na scores. In addition, ΔSMI/yr% showed a good predictive performance for the development of cirrhosis complications within 6 months after 1-year follow-up in all subgroups, with a cut-off of -2.62 (sensitivity, 83.9%; specificity, 74.5%) in the overall population. SMI at 1-year and Child-Pugh score were independent factors associated with survival. In addition, changes in sarcopenia status significantly stratified survival. CONCLUSION: ΔSMI/yr% was a good predictor of the development of cirrhosis complications in outpatients with cirrhosis, independent of Child-Pugh and MELD scores.